New analysis identifies distinct “early warning signals” that foreshadow democratic backsliding; these can help leaders know where to focus their efforts.

Across the world, the progress of democracy has slowed, if not reversed. Over the past decade, over 20 countries became less free and democratic. An article by Redstone’s Jarrett Bell and Sam Greenberg, published in the Stanford Social Innovation Review (SSIR), finds the signals that can anticipate when a country is likely to backslide, and explores how these differ based on whether a country is starting out as “Free” or “Partly Free.” Based on the analysis, the article also lays out how leaders can determine the specific areas of work to prioritize within a country to reduce its chances of backsliding (for example, whether to focus on voting access or economic equity).

Overview of early warning signals for democratic backsliding

  • Among “Free” countries, lower levels of economic opportunity appear to be the biggest predictor of backsliding. When democracies fail to deliver economic opportunities to their citizens, the data suggest that support for populist alternatives can grow. Interestingly, after a country backslides, economic opportunity scores change less than other indicators, indicating that economic opportunity may be more of an early warning than a casualty of democratic backsliding.
  • Election scores reveal relatively little about future backsliding or its consequences. Among “Partly Free” countries, scores on elections are not tied to future backsliding and would not have predicted it (and for “Free” countries, they were only a moderate early warning signal). Moreover, after a country backslid, election scores declined less than most other indicators.
  • Among “Partly Free” countries, lower civil society scores are associated with backsliding. A strong civil society can help prevent backsliding by putting pressure on governments, raising international awareness of human rights abuses, and supporting nonviolent movements when they arise. Unfortunately, once “Partly Free” countries backslide, civil society scores fall more severely than any other indicator (and once “Free” countries backslide, they experience the second-largest decrease), as autocrats seek to limit opposition. This may suggest that both before and after a country backslides, investments in civil society can be especially impactful.
  • Factors that remain consistently important across both “Free” and “Partly Free” countries are the rule of law and open debate, which both appear stronger in countries that did not backslide. A fair and just legal system and open debate are vital tools for constraining the power of autocrats, undermining censorship and disinformation, and protecting peaceful democratic movements and opposition from repression.

Prioritizing investment areas to prevent backsliding

Given limited resources, these data can help pro-democracy leaders decide which countries to prioritize. For example, because low scores on economic opportunity and rule of law most clearly presaged democratic backsliding in “Free” countries, leaders may choose to focus on supporting “Free” countries with lower scores in these areas. Throughout this work, decision-makers should of course also consult local and regional experts to supplement the insights from the data.

Within a given country, these data can also help prioritize areas for intervention that may reduce the chance of future backsliding. By comparing a country’s current scores with the prior scores of peer countries that did not backslide, leaders can set a reasonable benchmark for what “success” could look like for a country in that position. The data could indicate, for instance, that a given “Free” country might not need much work on economic inequality, but that it could use significant investments in the rule of law, if it scored lower on rule of law than its peer countries. The article walks through four examples—Tunisia, Mexico, India, and the United States—to illustrate how the data can help inform strategic decision-making in those countries.

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